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How to Use the Startup Success Forecasting Framework

How to Use the Startup Success Forecasting Framework

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Fundraising, Investing

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    What is a Startup Advisor?

    2 min read What is a startup advisor? Startup organizations often require guidance from those with more experience and connections in their prospective field. Many startups are experts at their products or service but lack the business know-how needed to thrive. Startup advisors can help bridge these gaps, helping the startup to launch, develop, grow, and ultimately succeed. Let’s take a closer look at what a startup advisor is and what they specifically do Types of Advisors There are several types of startup advisors. Some of the most common include:: The Brand Name: This type of advisor offers their name to your company. This can be helpful to attract investors, employees, and customers. They typically bring some value in the form of advice, but it’s primarily their name. The Domain Expert: This type of advisor knows the industry well, both in technology and business. They can be helpful if you are moving into a new domain or the industry is changing rapidly. The Networker: The networker knows everyone in the industry or region. Those with a Rolodex and the ability to make connections can be very helpful, especially in fundraising and growing sales. The Business Modeler: This type of advisor may come from other industries, but they know business models and can bring new monetization tools to your business. The Confidant: The confidant can coach on the emotional side of running a startup. Startups have highs and lows that take the founder through the full range of emotions. This advisor can help the founder navigate through the ups and downs. Consider which role you best fill, and market to your appropriate niche. Advisor Roles In addition to there being many types of advisors, advisors also take many roles in their work with startups. For example, some advisors’ role is simply to fill gaps in the early stage of the startup. Advisors can be signed on as formal advisors, or some may provide support as informal advisors. In this scenario, there are no set goals, meetings, or formal advisor agreements. This is the most common way startups work with advisors. Some advisors take the role of a mentor in providing guidance. These mentors tend to focus their efforts on the founder. Some advisors take the role of consultant in performing very specific tasks for the company while others take on general responsibilities. Others may take on the role of a board of directors. This can be helpful in early-stage companies that are not yet ready to form aboard. Advisors here can provide oversight to the company and help the founder keep the broader picture in mind. Regardless of the role, you choose to fill, as an advisor, you will aim to bring experience, contacts, and networking to the startups you work with. Purpose of an Advisory Board An advisory board is a group of three to five people who provide advice on how to grow your startup. They bring experience, contacts, and domain expertise. Advisory boards help the company grow and succeed. In recruiting for your advisory board, startups typically try to consider the following: Advisory board members should contribute a diversity of skills, networks, and experiences. The advisors should fill in the gaps of the startup team which is most often a skeletal group. The board members should raise the profile of the startup with their reputations. They can additionally give the startup branding to help position the company with clients. Advisory board members should make a strong face for the company. Startups can use these members’ influence for recruiting the team, investors, and customers.  Advisory boards are different from a board of directors in that they don’t have any fiduciary roles and work informally with startups to grow the business.   Read more on the TEN Capital eGuide: Advising a Startup Hall T. Martin is the founder and CEO of the TEN Capital Network. TEN Capital has been connecting startups with investors for over ten years. You can connect with Hall about fundraising, business growth, and emerging technologies via LinkedIn or email: hallmartin@tencapital.group

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    Best Practices for Startup Advisors

    2 min read Being an advisor to startup organizations can be rewarding in many ways. Advisors can make a significant difference in a startup’s likelihood of success with the right insight, connections, and resources. For those who are beginning their career path as a startup advisor, it is important to understand the industry best practices to ensure they are providing the best help possible to the startups they engage with. In this article, we discuss these best practices and provide advice on how to be the best advisor. Characteristics of a Good Advisor The following are characteristics of a good advisor and great goals to aim for as you develop yourself professionally: The advisor has first-hand experience in the industry, running a business, closing sales, and more. They listen and can relate startups’ problems to actionable solutions. The advisor has been through the same challenges and experiences as the startup is going through. They ask meaningful questions and probe to get to the bottom of things. Understand the startups’ point of view and can motivate them. They have opinions and share them even if those opinions are not popular. Advisory work is an important part of their time. They are effective communicators. They are articulate and can persuade. Provide actionable steps to help accomplish goals. They bring a network of investors, other advisors, and collaborators. Understanding of others’ opinions. Their work is their passion. How to Be a Good Advisor In choosing a startup to advise, it’s important to find the right fit. Here are some key points to make sure you are a good advisor to the startup you are aiming to collaborate with: Spend time with the startup to really understand if you can add value and if they are ready for an advisor. Make sure you communicate well with each other and ensure the personal style fits. Spend as much time on selecting a startup as you would an investment. If they have other advisors, check with them about their experience. Find out where they need the help the most.   Ask what’s slowing them down and where they avoid engaging. That’s an indication they need help. Avoid the day-to-day minutiae and focus on strategic objectives. For the day-to-day work, make introductions to people who can solve those issues. Make clear you will play the role of devil’s advocate and that you will ask a lot of difficult questions as part of your job. Spend the majority of your time with the startup listening and only talking when you have something important to say. Get to know the founder and others in the startup outside of work.  Come to an agreement about the time commitment for your work with the startup. Give the founder the hard answers as in the end, they will appreciate that more than the kudos. If the founder seems to be scattered, help them focus on a few key priorities. If it turns out not to be a good fit, then help the founder close it out. Finding a Startup to Advise Here are some key points to consider when finding a startup to advise: Choose startups that you can help. Make clear the work you plan to do such as introductions, networking, advising on the domain, or just sharing business experience. Define the duration of the advisor work- one to two years is a common timeframe. Determine the frequency and type of meetings, for example by phone, in person, or in a group meeting. Set aside time to do the work.  Negotiate compensation based on the work to be done. Compensation consists of a half percent to one percent of equity vested over time.  Be prepared to sign a non-disclosure and non-compete agreement. Have informal reviews with the company throughout the process to make sure you are meeting expectations. Add your name to the team as an advisor to help with fundraising activities. Join sales meetings where you can add value. Keep in mind, advising can be rewarding but it always comes at a cost: time and effort.   Read more on the TEN Capital Guide: Advising a Startup Hall T. Martin is the founder and CEO of the TEN Capital Network. TEN Capital has been connecting startups with investors for over ten years. You can connect with Hall about fundraising, business growth, and emerging technologies via LinkedIn or email: hallmartin@tencapital.group

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    Presenting Your Pitch Deck

    2 min read Congratulations: You’ve landed a meeting with a prospective investor. It’s now time to prepare for your first meeting where you’ll present your pitch deck and hopefully convince the investor your startup is worth a gamble. To do this successfully, you’ll need to know what investors are looking for and how to prepare a solid pitch deck presentation. Continue reading below to learn more about how to do just this. What Investors Want One of the most important things to understand as an early-stage startup is this: The investor doesn’t care about the side of revenue. What they do care about is the predictability of the revenue. Investors look for systems in startups regardless of the size of the company.  As a startup, ask yourself:  Do you have a process for finding customers?  Does that process introduce them to your product?  Does that process also include closing? If you have a sale funnel, it is helpful to share that with the investors. This is key because the investor can then see the traction you have in your sales prospecting process. Use the funnel in multiple investor updates to show how prospects are moving through it.  Purpose of the Pitch Deck A pitch deck is a brief presentation that provides your audience with an overview of your business. Ideally, the deck should answer any questions an investor might have. The basic goal of the pitch deck is to introduce your deal to an investor. Additionally, the pitch deck should also serve as a way to show exactly what is essential to an investor who may be considering an investment in your startup. Tips for Pitch Deck Success An ideal pitch showcases the proposed outcome of the business is going to happen with or without the investor. In other words, your pitch deck should show that the outcome is inevitable. Ideally, you want to use your pitch deck to show the potential investors that the results are there. Put those results up for everyone to see and show, what you have accomplished so far. The slides of your deck serve as the presenter, not the other way around.  When pitching, avoid discussing multiple scenarios. Investors will find it difficult to keep track of what you’re trying to accomplish.  Most importantly. focus on the core message.    Read more on the TEN Capital Guide: Presenting Your Pitch Deck Hall T. Martin is the founder and CEO of the TEN Capital Network. TEN Capital has been connecting startups with investors for over ten years. You can connect with Hall about fundraising, business growth, and emerging technologies via LinkedIn or email: hallmartin@tencapital.group

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    Raising Funding for Startups

    2 min read Most startup organizations are running on limited resources, a vital one being funding. Successfully raising rounds of funding for your organization can make or break the business, therefore it is important you know how to do it well. Part of successful fundraising includes knowing how much capital to aim for and when to begin your raise. In this article, we provide some insight to help your organization better decide on these two factors. How Much Funding Should You Raise? Every day I ask entrepreneurs how much they are raising. Most begin with the big number; the full and complete raise they anticipate running. This ranges usually between $1M and $10M. It’s good to have the big picture in mind, but some entrepreneurs are anticipating to raise this big number all at once because “they want to get the fundraising out of the way.” I remind them that raising too much money around will cost you the equity you don’t have to give up. Your valuation is low at the beginning. It’s best to raise only the funding you need to reach the next milestone and no more. As you grow the business, your valuation will go up and you’ll give away less equity. With this in mind, it can be helpful to consider breaking your fundraise into tranches.  This approach will save you time as well as make each fundraise easier. When Should You Raise Funding? When considering how much funding to raise, consider your funding requirements. To start, calculate your cash burn and estimate the need for new cash. Next, consider the preparation and timing issues. Start your preparation six months in front of the launch. Launch you’re fundraise six months before you need the funding. Use this six-month preparation time to introduce the deal to the investors and educate them on your current status. Finally, there are seasonal issues to consider. I wouldn’t start in early June, but rather wait until late August to kick off a campaign.   Read more on the TEN Capital Guide: How to Prepare for a Fundraise Hall T. Martin is the founder and CEO of the TEN Capital Network. TEN Capital has been connecting startups with investors for over ten years. You can connect with Hall about fundraising, business growth, and emerging technologies via LinkedIn or email: hallmartin@tencapital.group

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    The Structure of Angel Groups

    2 min read Angel investor groups require diligent administrative attention. There is a lot of required structure and organization. If you are managing or considering starting an angel investor group, it is important to keep the following structural considerations in mind. Investment Structure In setting up an angel network, you need to choose an investment structure. Here are some structures to consider:  Individual investments: The members can each decide if they want to invest and how much to invest in each deal. This allows for maximum flexibility for the members to invest in the deals they want. The drawback is the administration is high, as you must work with each investor in determining their amount of investment and signing of the documents. Group investments: The members invest as a group. In this structure, the investors can create a pledge fund to allow the group to decide which deals to pursue. Members have some decision-making control over the investment decisions. This reduces the administrative overhead. The group can choose to create a fund in which a screening committee or manager determines which investments are made. This requires the least amount of administration as the manager or committee makes the decisions on their own. Lastly, the group can choose to create a sidecar fund that invests from a fund into deals the members have funded individually. The sidecar fund provides members diversification on top of their individual investments. This is also a low-cost administrative structure as the sidecar investment is typically a calculation based on the members’ investment and does not require a manager to run it. Legal Structure There are several legal structures to use when setting up your angel network. Most angel networks form a Limited Liability Company (LLC). This gives the angel network a legal entity with which it can conduct business. The members often pay an annual fee to fund the operational activities of the company. Angel networks form in association with a university. Since the university is a non-profit organization, the angel group can work inside the university for its mentoring, networking, and other non-financial activities. For running a fund or making investments, the angel network inside the university must set up an entity outside the university, since non-profit organizations cannot engage in investment activities. Some angel networks form a not-for-profit LLC and then apply for non-profit status 501(c)3 with the IRS. Again, mentoring, education and other non-financial aspects can be done within the organization, but the financial aspects such as investing must be done outside. Finally, there are angel networks that form a not-for-profit LLC and then apply for trade organization status or 501(c)6. This structure allows the organization to engage in political activities. Those angel networks choosing a non-profit or trade organization structure must set up a separate legal entity for any funds they want to raise and deploy. Organization Structure There are two ways to organize your angel network: member-led or manager-led. Member-led groups let the member’s source deals, lead the investments, and recruit the members. They hire staff members to handle the administrative tasks. Alternatively, manager-led groups hire experienced professionals to perform key functions such as determining which startups to fund.   Managers work on screening the deals so only the fundable ones go through to the members. They prepare the founders to ensure that their documents and presentations are ready. They maintain communication with the startup throughout the process. They lead the diligence process and produce the diligence report.  Some angel groups partner with incubators, accelerators, universities, and other groups. The partner provides meeting space and shares the operational cost of the group. Some partners provide administrative support. The choice of member-led versus manager-led often comes down to the availability of someone to take the role of the manager.  Meeting Structure In setting up your angel network you’ll need to set up the meetings. Here are some key points to consider: How many deal flow cycles are you planning? Are you online, in person, or conducting both at the same time? How will you set up the screening meeting, the presentation meeting, and the diligence follow-up? Will there be time between the meetings? Do you include a meal, appetizers, or drinks? Where will you meet? How much time will the meeting take? What is the number of companies that will be pitching? How much time is set aside for networking? What are the duties to be done before, during, and after the meetings? How often will the board meet and when? Where do sponsors fit into the meeting agenda? Will there be education sessions? What are the needs of the members and how best to facilitate the education? Who is the best to provide the training? Consider these points in setting up the meetings as it’s a key decision set for the group. Read more on the TEN Capital eGuide: Leading an Angel Group Hall T. Martin is the founder and CEO of the TEN Capital Network. TEN Capital has been connecting startups with investors for over ten years. You can connect with Hall about fundraising, business growth, and emerging technologies via LinkedIn or email: hallmartin@tencapital.group

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    Angel Investing: The Deal Process

    2 min read The aim of every angel investor is to profit, and this is done by closing successful deals. In this article, we take a closer look at the deal process discussing topics such as stages of the deal, performing due diligence, and how to effectively lead the deal as an angel investor. Stages of the Deal Process A startup investment goes through a series of stages. It starts with the pitch presentation in which the startup introduces the deal to the investors. Then there’s the first follow-up meeting in which the investors dig into the deal to learn the details. Investors want to think about it and also want to see the startup continue to make progress. Then comes the Due Diligence phase in which the investors perform a more rigid review of the startup’s documents, team, and market. If the terms sheet has been established by other investors, then the investors review those documents. If not, the investor must negotiate the terms including valuation. Investors then check with their network to see who else may want to invest or put it out to other investors for syndication. Finally, there’s the closing of the round with the signing of documents. Not every startup makes it all the way through the process. Here are some key challenges: When the investors come together to dig into the deal, it must have enough traction and value propositions to maintain the investors’ interest before the investors commit significant time to it.  Deals may stall because the diligence process didn’t continue because the investors were distracted. Some deals stall because the startup and the investors cannot agree on valuation. Deals can stall out or come up with a lower investment amount because investors fell out at the closing stage.  It’s important to keep the momentum going throughout the process both on the investor side and the startup side. Deal Diligence Below are some tips on how an investor group can make the diligence process manageable: standardize the diligence process break it down into subtasks and define the process for each task assign the tasks to team members set target dates for completion and have periodic check-ins with each team member  focus on the key risks and not every aspect of the deal make clear to the startup how the diligence process works keep the startup apprised of the progress and status of their deal In most cases, the startup will find the process manageable if they understand how it works and if they see consistent progress to the goal. A good diligence process often provides new information and insight to the startup. Reducing time, making it efficient, and helping the startup, are the signs of a good diligence process. Leading the Deal In early-stage investing, someone needs to take the lead and screen the deals, diligence selected ones, and negotiate the valuation with the chosen ones. In most cases, the lead investor doesn’t want to be the only one in the deal and promotes other investors to join. This promotion process is called syndication. Most investors are looking for someone else to take the lead and actively follow the deal as it progresses. As a deal lead, make sure you do the following: Setup a strong process for diligence and bring legal, accounting, and other resources that can help in the process. Know the deal economics such as valuation, investor rights, control terms, and the path to an exit.  Keep other investors informed to attract them to the deal. Invest enough of your own funds to show commitment to the startup. Coach the startup on fundraising, especially for first-time founders. Move the funding process forward consistently without stalling out. Set aside time to join the board of directors. Add value to the startup where you can. Move to Close After the diligence is complete and the open questions answered, the team must decide whether or not to invest. It’s important to identify the risks and write them out in the report. The team should articulate an investment thesis that includes the opportunity in the deal such as how big it could become. The team should include the potential exit value and how long it will take to reach it. The team should also clarify their assumptions around the deal and write it out as well. To decide to go forward, take the temperature of the team. It’s either heating up or cooling off. Monitor the company’s progress to see if it continues to demonstrate a growth story. If enough investors want to move forward, then the investors should pursue it. If not enough investors want to move forward, then it’s a pass. It’s important to make a timely decision as the entrepreneur needs to know the group’s position.   Read more on the TEN Capital eGuide: Leading an Angel Group Hall T. Martin is the founder and CEO of the TEN Capital Network. TEN Capital has been connecting startups with investors for over ten years. You can connect with Hall about fundraising, business growth, and emerging technologies via LinkedIn or email: hallmartin@tencapital.group

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    Joining an Angel Group

    2 min read You may find yourself contemplating joining an angel investment group. As with all investment decisions, there are both benefits and drawbacks to joining an investment group. Familiarize yourself with both before making the final decision. Benefits The angel network can build resources to share with the angel such as due diligence. This is time-intensive work, so it helps to share the load. Angel networks provide more and better deal flow than individual investors can find. The bigger the angel network, the more likely there will be investors that are knowledgeable about the market segments and startup business models. This lets the angel investor pursue deals outside their core expertise. Angel groups can write bigger checks than individual angels and thus command better terms with the startup. Experienced angel investors can share their knowledge with new angels. This is particularly helpful in setting valuations, defining term sheets, and supporting the company. Angel investors can find diversification through the angel network and its deal flow. An angel network will have more influence over its startup scene than an individual investor.  Challenges Here are some challenges related to angel investment groups to consider: Angel investing requires hands-on work with the startups, not only in funding but also in supporting them after the investment. They are often left filling in the gaps left by the local incubators and accelerator programs in coaching them into a place where they can raise funding. First-time angels can find it time-consuming and expensive to learn the process. Newmarket segments require the angel investor to continually learn new industries and business models.  There’s no collateral for the investment and it can all go to zero as it’s a risky investment class. One out of ten investments will be a home run. Two or three will provide a small return on investment. And the rest will fail.  Angel investing can be a rewarding endeavor but it’s not without its challenges. Read more on the TEN Capital eGuide: Leading an Angel Group Hall T. Martin is the founder and CEO of the TEN Capital Network. TEN Capital has been connecting startups with investors for over ten years. You can connect with Hall about fundraising, business growth, and emerging technologies via LinkedIn or email: hallmartin@tencapital.group

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    Starting an Angel Investor Group

    2 min read Starting an angel investment group can be a tempting option for some investors. It can definitely be a rewarding and lucrative process. Keep in mind however that this does not come without its difficulties. If you are considering starting an angel investor group, consider the information below before getting started. Should You Start an Angel Network? Next, before launching an angel network, assess your community as follows: Do you have accredited investors interested in startup investing? You have any investors who will take the lead on diligence and investing for each deal? Do you have a champion who will organize and lead the angel group for the first two to three years? Do you have a flow of startups seeking funding that you can access? Is there a resource for incubating and educating those startups in the area? Are there local service providers such as attorneys, accountants, financial advisors, and others who can support the startups? Are there other investor groups that currently fund those deals in your community to support syndication? Is there access to follow-on funding for startups? Research your community to see what currently exists and what must be built. Check with the local entrepreneur groups to make this assessment and get their potential support for starting an angel group. Considering Service Providers In setting up an angel network, it’s important to have support from services providers such as lawyers, accountants, and financial advisors. Startups will need legal, accounting, and financial support. Review your community for current service providers who are already helping the startups. Assess the skills of the providers to see if they are a fit for early-stage companies. Some providers only work with more mature companies, but the angel network will be dealing with very early ones. Discuss with local entrepreneur groups and professional organizations about their experience with the providers. Identify the ones who provide the best experience for their clients. Reach out and develop a relationship with them as potential speakers, sponsors, or even members. For those services missing from the community, reach out online to other organizations that can provide the support virtually. If the demand is big enough, providers will move to the area to support the community. This often occurs in entrepreneur hubs that are growing fast. Liabilities and Disclosures There’s risk in startup investing as most investments don’t pay a return to the investor. In running an angel network, one must take steps to mitigate liability. It’s a best practice to have all members sign liability waivers stating they understand the risk of startup investing and take responsibility for it. The waiver should indicate that each member makes their own investment decisions and the angel group is not recommending any startup for investment. Members in the group should provide full disclosure. If the member has any relationship with a proposed startup such as advising, consulting, or otherwise, the member should disclose this to the other members. Each member can decide for themselves how that impacts their investment decision. In syndicating deals to other groups, an angel network should have those groups sign liability waivers indicating that each investor is responsible for their due diligence. Most startups are raising capital from angel investors who are doing so under an SEC exemption. The angel group should have written confirmation from the members indicating that they are accredited investors. Take care to cover these areas of liability for your angel network.   Read more on the TEN Capital Network eGuide: Leading an Angel Group Hall T. Martin is the founder and CEO of the TEN Capital Network. TEN Capital has been connecting startups with investors for over ten years. You can connect with Hall about fundraising, business growth, and emerging technologies via LinkedIn or email: hallmartin@tencapital.group

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    Need-To-Know Metrics for Investors

    2 min read As an investor, there are several metrics to keep in mind while evaluating and managing your startup investments. Today, we are going to talk about four key metrics: redemption facilitation, 3X in 3 terms, IRR, and ROI. Continue reading to learn what these metrics are used for and how to put them into action for your investment portfolio. Redemption Facilitation: In an early-exit term sheet, it’s important to have a redemption facilitation process. This includes the steps for setting up the bank accounts, capturing the investor’s interest, providing payouts, and investor updates. The process also tracks escrow of repayment funds and later revenue share payments to complete the redemption process. For the redemption exercise, here is the timeline and steps: 180 days from Note maturity: Capture the current version of the cap table and financials, including the current income statement and balance sheet. Send a notice to the investors to consider their decision to redeem. 90 days from Note maturity: Confirm the investors’ decision to redeem. Prepare payment options for the company to consider.  60 days from Note maturity date: Send notice to the investors of impending maturity and confirm their decision on redemption. 30 days from Note maturity date: Update investors with status on a regular basis. Send notice of redemption to the company and ask for payment due in one week. 23 days from Note maturity date: If payment is not received, then a payment plan will be due in one week by the company. 16 days from Note maturity date if no payment plan is provided: Set up a follow-up meeting with the company to discuss options. Upon maturity of the Note or in the event of a Corporate Transaction payment: Create a promissory note of the debt due. Elect a board of directors with investors having majority control. 3X in 3 Terms I analyzed the results of several angel networks and found that 65% of the investments after three years were still in business but were no longer on the venture track. In most cases, they were growing businesses but we’re not going to be bought out for a significant return to the investor as the market conditions had changed, the competition had taken over, or the founder was no longer interested in keeping pace to achieve a venture exit. The best-case scenario was the entrepreneur would sell the business for 2-3X after 10 years, in which case the investor would get a minimal return on investment. In my investing experience, three years into the investment, it becomes clear if the company will continue on the venture path or not.  I often saw the entrepreneur signal their departure from the venture path by taking above-market rate salaries.  I called this taking the ‘payroll exit’, in which case they no longer needed an ‘equity exit’.   This left the investor stranded on the equity plan with no way out. I set up a deal structure that would allow the investor to go on the payroll exit in the event the startup chose that path. In this structure, the investor receives three times their investment three years from the date of investment. Therefore, $100K in yields $300K out. If the company continues on the equity exit, then the investor may choose to stay in the investment.  ROI ROI is the return on investment without respect to time. If I invest $100K and 5 years later I receive a return of $300,000 then my ROI is 3X as I’ve tripled my initial investment. Since ROI doesn’t reflect time passed, if I receive my return 10 years later my ROI is still 3X. As you’ll see in the next section, this is where ROI and IRR differ from one another.  IRR IRR is the internal rate of return which is the return on investment with respect to time. It’s easiest to calculate IRR using an excel spreadsheet. Follow the steps below: Open up a column Set each row as one year Put the amount invested in year 1 (use a minus sign for this input) The amount returned in the appropriate year (use a positive sign for this input) Put a zero in each unfilled row Apply the IRR formula from Excel to make the calculation To understand your investment results better, you’ll find IRR is often a better metric than ROI as it considers the time factor. Read more TEN Capital eduction:  http://staging.startupfundingespresso.com/education/ Hall T. Martin is the founder and CEO of the TEN Capital Network. TEN Capital has been connecting startups with investors for over ten years. You can connect with Hall about fundraising, business growth, and emerging technologies via LinkedIn or email: hallmartin@tencapital.group

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